Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Predicting the Predictable

Now that I have contracted Foot in Mouth disease for suggesting that Test cricket is better of because of boring draws, I should refrain from discussing the virtues of Test cricket. Though I do hope by this time next week order is restored and we can talk of dull boring draws on dead pitches as a thing of the past.

Anyway, this post is more to do about the One-Day game and less to do with Test cricket (though they are related in a vague sort of way).

Before reading any further, ask yourself this question; when you sit down to watch a one day game does a par score cross your mind, i.e., a score after the first innings that gives both Teams an equal chance of winning? And after the 1st innings is over, do you have a gut feeling as to who will win (or lose) the game? And are you more often right then wrong?

If the answer to all these questions is no, then you haven'’t watched enough one day cricket, but read on nevertheless J

And if the answer is yes, then welcome to the club. In this case, pick up a pen and paper and write down the rough par scores that come to your mind based on all* ODIs played:

- World wide since the early 70'’s

- World-wide since Jan 1st 2000

- In the sub continent

- Outside the sub continent

* Excluding games decided by D/L (or similar) method, less than 45 overs (as they distort the numbers) and those that did not result in a +ve result (mainly due to rain, but occasional Ties)

I am looking for four answers here (one for each) but let me clarify, I do not expect anyone to come up with accurate answers. The main idea (apart from a bit of fun) is to see if such numbers do spring to mind.

Now to proceed. I had mentioned in one of my earlier posts that higher the 1st innings score, the more the chances of the team winning. As a refresher, here is the graph from that post (ignore the comparison with Test cricket for the moment) …

(click on this and other images to enlarge)

And since we know that in the one day game, unless there is rain interruption or a tie (which is very rare), if you are not winning, you are losing. If we exclude these '“No Result' games, the losing line is a mirror of the winning line, we get a graph in which the lines cross each other at the 50% mark (donating a point when the chance of winning or losing is equal, or at Par).

(Based on all* Games world wide)

As you can see, the lines cross somewhere between the 200-225 & 225-250 band, thus giving us an indication that roughly in the 215-230 range is a par score in ODIs (Tick or cross your first answer but let me remind you this is not an attempt to find an accurate number).

And there is another striking aspect of the game; not only does the chance of winning (or losing) change dramatically once you move from the par score, the margins of victory (or defeat) also change dramatically.

(please note, I have used nr of balls left as the margin of victory if Team batting 2nd wins as opposed to the traditional wickets margin).

Now, in my opinion, these graphs highlight some of the most important attributes (and also flaws) of the One day game:

  1. Some kind of par score exits
  2. It exists EXACTLY in the middle of the game
  3. If the game moves away from this par score, the chances of winning and losing change dramatically. And so do the margins of victory and defeat.

So the moment the 1stinnings score moves away from the par score, its starts becoming predictable move. So how many games finish around the par score and how many out side it?

As you can see, only about 25% -30% games do finish around the par score. So about 70-75% games finish outside the par score and the further they are from that score, the more one sided they get.

Now, in the ideal world, it would be great if all games finished around the par score. But that would mean that the 1st Innings would be come predictable and boring J We can'’t win, can we…

Anyway, got to rush now. Travelling, work etc will keep me away for a couple of days.

But don't throw away your tiny sheet of par scores as we still need to find out how the game has changed in the last few years and how sub continental games differ from elsewhere. And feel free to revise those scores. After all, there are no prizes for guessing correctly J


muthu said...

i thought the par scores exist and are based on each wicket the match is being played rather than for ALL ODIs in history. flat - around 300, fast and bouncy/slow wickets of subcontinent - around 230. you cannot have a par score of 230 for ODI in karachi/rawalpindi/hyderabad/bangalore. par score is minimum of 300 in these venues.

Saurabh Wahi said...

I agree muthu.

But like I mentioned on my blog, my idea was to find out if a par score exists in ODIs. And eventually I want to discuss why it exists and can it be eliminated to make the One day game more exciting.

Wait for my next post where I will disect it on the other three parameters. And now that you mention it, I will try to group Grounds based on the average scores and see how their par scores compare...


FtheAussies said...

Sure it varies with each ground...but on a sporting pitch my take - 250 would be par before the Powerplay/Supersub era 300 in the new ODI era!!
By extension :
For subcontinental pitches add 30-40 runs to above ...hehe! get the idea !

Anonymous said...

best regards, nice info

Anonymous said...

This is very interesting site... Make your own nextel ringtones Vacuum cleaner pussy Hairy pussy riding dick

Anonymous said...

lolita chin
lolitas 13
lolitas kid
free anal sex
lolita picture
lolita suck
lolita cp terra loltobbs ftp lol
lolita vip lolitas virgins bbs
lolita lolly fuck movie children
lolita chin
lolitas 13
lolitas kid
free anal sex
lolita picture
lolita suck
lolita cp terra loltobbs ftp lol
lolita vip lolitas virgins bbs
lolita lolly fuck movie children

Anonymous said...

Best regards from NY! » »

Anonymous said...

airline tickets cheap lowest fares

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

She loved her brother so much. He was older than her, 23, and she was just 19. they got along great and did most everything together. free bbs lolita preteens took a year off of school and was going to go away to the collage a few hundred miles away in a big city. Their town was small and Kitty had never lived in a big city. She was scared to move there all by herself. She especially was afraid to lose her brother.
"You aren't losing me, Kitty, I will be right here, right here waiting for you to return. I will call you and write to you if you like..."
She interrupted Jarod,
"Of course I want to keep in touch! I wish dad didn't need your help on the ranch, I wish you could come with me."
free bdsm personals pouted and lowered her head. Her brother, Jarod, lifted it with one finger and smiled,
"If you keep that lip out there a bird might land on it and shit in your mouth..."
They both laughed. She always laughed so much around him. Kitty hugged him tight and he held her close, they both wanted to stay in the moment forever. However, dad called down the stairs and they finished their morning rituals before they went out to take care of the animals.
She was already dressed and was in the bathroom brushing her teeth as her brother got dressed in his room. He took his boxers off while the door was cracked slightly open and Kitty peeked at him between the door to his bedroom and the frame. All she could see as a well toned, tight as hell ass. She had seen him naked when they where younger and experimenting with the world, but he used to be chubby. Now he was sculpted, as was she, from working hard on the ranch.
She ran the toothbrush on her teeth slower as she stared and soon was just standing there sucking on the end of it. He pulled his jeans up and threw on a t-shirt and she backed away into the bathroom to finish. As she was washing her face he came up behind her, pressing his body against her back in order to reach in front of her to get his own toothbrush. His crotch pressed firmly on her ass and she felt a little tingle go through her body. She never thought of it as sexual but it made her a little damp. This was her brother, somebody whom she loved, not a dirty man off the streets bent on getting in her pants. The thought of a twisted stranger trying to fuck her made her smile and her nipples got hard. She was normally a very dirty girl in bed. (and very rarely did she use a bed at all!)
free big tit videos smiled down at his sister while she dried her face and he put toothpaste on his toothbrush. He could smell her free hardcore teen sex, it smelled like strawberries. He loved that smell. Sometimes he would use her shampoo so he could smell strawberries all night. She did the same thing. Kitty would sometimes put a dab of his cologne on her neck so she could smell his scent all night. They never told each other this, or anybody else for that matter. People just wouldn't understand.
They went out early in the morning before breakfast and started chucking hay from a truck into the horse pasture. It was misty out and a loud thunder grew in the hills beyond. It was the beating of many hoofs. A few whinnies and snorts where heard as the horses drew closer. Soon their black outlines where seen galloping and throwing their heads up and down and side to side as they came. Kitty drove the truck off a few yards away from the sinuous mass of pure strength and wild hearts as they closed in on the food. The stallion trotted around the food, watching his mares and foals carefully, then he pushed into the crowd to eat with them. The matriarch of the group was pushing her way in next to the stallion and they nuzzled each other gently then they continued eating.
Kitty and Jarod smiled as they drove off to the barn to clean up the loose hay off the ground that they spilled from the bails. As they worked, Jarod told his sister dirty jokes he read online,
"A guy comes home from work feeling bad about what he had done there. He lays and ponders his actions for a while. A voice in his head tells him, 'it is okay, a lot of doctors have sex with their patience.' He starts to feel a little better then another voice in his head said, 'yes, but you are a veterinarian!'"
They both laughed, though he tried to keep a straight face to add to the humor. Kitty grabbed a handful of loose hay and threw it at him. He ducked and grabbed some of his own, tossing it at her. They laughed and threw hay, getting covered in it and soon she jumped on his back as he went to get more. He spun them both around and they fell to the ground in a pile of the yellow hay laughing and wrestling.
free black sex chat pinned Kitty down under him and they stopped laughing. They where breathing hard and their hearts where pounding. They looked into each other's green eyes and smiled shyly. They had just transformed into virgin lovers, touching the opposite sex for the first time. All the thoughts of being apart drifted away and they where in the moment. Nothing else existed but them, they had each other.
He bent his head down and kissed her softly on the lips. Jarod pulled his head back to make sure she wasn't going to protest and she lifted her free lolitas teenie galleries head up and kissed him back. He slid his hands under her and held her tight as they started kissing heavier, passionately and fervently. Their tongues explored, each in the other's mouth. It was unlike any kiss either of them had ever had. This was pure passion, love and trust.
Jarod moved his hands down and pulled her shirt up, moving his fingers to the front to touch her firm, round, perky tits. Her nipples where rock hard as he touched them. Her breasts where so soft and smooth. Kitty arched her back slightly and slid her own hands up his shirt, feeling his bare chest. He was hot and she could feel his heart pounding, hers was, too. Their hearts thumped away in their chests so hard – like the beating of the wild horse's hooves on the morning damp ground.
They managed to pull each others' shirts off between heavy kisses and he deftly undid her bra from the front clasp. Her tits fell out and her hard nipples stared up at him. He lay his body on top of hers slightly so she could just feel his skin on her nipples. It drove free interracial sex wild. Jarod pressed his hips against hers and pushed his hardening cock into her wet pussy through their pants.
He started to unbutton her jeans as he kissed a path from her lips to her jaw, across her collarbone and between her tits. He licked and sucked each pink nipple, nibbling at times. Then he made his way down further to her tummy and hips. When he got down there he had her pants unbuttoned and pulled halfway down her upper thigh. He kissed and bit her hip bones and looked at her light brown fur patch that lay peeking over the underwear and jeans that he was sliding off.

Anonymous said...

What a great site »

Anonymous said...

[url=]half-price amoxil[/url]


Anonymous said...

[url=]vacation cruise[/url]