You need 20 wickets to win a Test match, so I thought it will be interesting to see how Austrlia and England compare in that respect. This analysis is purely mathematical, but it does make interesting reading.
I have taken the Wickets per test as a basis for this analysis and looked at the records of the last 25 Test for the English bolwers and last 50 for the Aussies to reflect their domination periods. Also, since Lee and Kasprowicz have not played in all tests (and rarely together), I have combined their records (25 each).
Ignoring Giles for a moment, if we compare the Stats for Australia and England, we see an interesting scenario:
Austrlia (Wickets per Test)
McGrath-4.62, Warne-5.38, Gillespie-3.52, Lee+Kasprowicz-3.42 (3.56 and 3.28 respectively)
England (wickets per Test)
Harmison-4.32,Hoggard-3.92, Flintoff-3.76, Jones-3.18 (over 17 Tests)
This give the Aussies a 'potential' to take 16.94 or 17 wickets per Test whereas England have a 'potential' to take 15.18 or 15 wickers per Test.
Now add Giles (2.92 wickets per test), to the equation and England have a 'potential' to take 18.1 wickets per Test, thus giving them the edge over the Aussies. Add to the fact that Gillespie is not delivering and Clarke will not be able to bowl anytime soon, its clear that the Aussies have their job cut out to get England out twice. Depending on Warne & McGrath to run through the English batting line-up everytime is going to be a bit ask.
In my opinion, they need a genuine all-rounder to replace Katich and a replacement for Gillespie (only one wont do it). I think Symonds and Kaspa might be an option.
But what do the Aussies do about Hayden who, in Damien Fleming's words yerterday was made to look like a 'monkey' by Flintoff. But that's a different topic of discussion...
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Interesting point about fifth bowler. Aus does not seem to be needing the fifth bowler as they take 20 wkts with the 4 they have. (its 17 because they lost a few matches and drawn 3 with India). But ofcourse Eng is also up there because of their bowling. If you look at the runs Eng batsmen are getting for them in these matches, it would be much less (which is why they've lost more games than Aus..and to teams which Aus beats easily)
But interesting thing about the fifth bowler. I dont think Giles is their 5th bowler. I think its shared between him and Hoggard+Jones. Except on an out-and-out fast pitch, Eng would almost surely play Giles instead of extra pacer. But yes, he does have his use.
And I dont think Aus can create an allrounder. I think if they get their 4th bowler to be productive at the same average as Gillespie, they would do fine. Actually they have an allrounder (extra batsman) in Gilchrist while Eng have it in extra bowler (Flintoff or any other bowler who plays because flintoff takes actually takes his place in the side as a batsman). The extra batsman strategy works for Aus many times...Gilchrist has been rescuing them so many times.
I refer to Giles as the Fifth bowler because he is not expected to take wickets as many wickets as Hoggard or Jones. Even if Giles does make it to the team with only four bowlers, then he would be the 'fourth' bolwer. Bottomline, he can never be one of their frontline bolwers. The problem England have is the lack of spinners in the country, and he is the only choice they have.
I still think the Aussies will struggle unless they have 4.7 bowlers (0.7 = some all rounder like Watson or Symonds). Right now, they are down to 3.2 or something! Like I said, replacing Gillespie will only get them back to 4, but unless the new bowler is as effective as Gillespie was in the past, they will struggle.
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